In Blackjack, insurance is perhaps the least understood
of all the commonly available rules for Blackjack. This
is not necessarily a bad thing because the insurance bet
is normally a poor bet for the player, with a high house
advantage. However, that's not always the case. So, here
we go:
If the dealer turns an up-card of an Ace, he will offer
"Insurance" to the players. Insurance bets can
be made by betting up to half your original bet amount
in the insurance betting stripe in front of your bet.
The dealer will check to see if he has a 10-value card
underneath his Ace, and if he does have Blackjack, your
winning Insurance bet will be paid at odds of 2:1. You'll
lose your original bet of course (unless you also have
a Blackjack), so the net effect is that you break even
(assuming you bet the full half bet for insurance.) This
is why the bet is described as "insurance",
since it seems to protect your original bet against a
dealer Blackjack. Of course, if the dealer does not have
Blackjack, you'll lose the insurance bet, and still have
to play the original bet out.
In the simplest description, Insurance is a side-bet,
where you are offered 2:1 odds that the dealer has a 10-valued
card underneath ("in the hole"). A quick check
of the odds yields this: In a single deck game, there
are 16 ten-valued cards. Assuming that you don't see any
other cards, including your own, the tens compose 16 out
of 51 remaining cards after the dealer's Ace was removed.
For the insurance bet to be a break-even bet, the hole
card would have to be a ten 1 out of 3 times, but 16/51
is only 1 in 3.1875.
The situation is often thought to be different when you
have a Blackjack. The dealer is likely to offer you "even
money" instead of the insurance bet. This is just
the same old insurance bet with a simplification thrown
in. Let's ignore the "even money" name, and
look at what happens when you insure a Blackjack. Let's
say you bet $10, and have a Blackjack. You would normally
collect $15 for this, unless the dealer also has a Blackjack,
in which case you push or tie.
Let's assume that the dealer has an Ace up, and you decide
to take insurance for the full amount, or $5. Now, two
things can happen:
1) The dealer has a Blackjack. I tie with the $10, but
collect 2:1 on the $5 insurance bet for a total profit
of $10.
2) The dealer does not have Blackjack. I lose the $5,
but collect $15 for my Blackjack. Total profit, again
$10.
In either case, once I make the insurance bet, I'm guaranteed
a profit of $10, or even money for my original bet.
So, casinos allow me to eliminate the insurance bet altogether,
and simply declare that I want even money for my Blackjack
when the dealer has an Ace showing. The Blackjack strategy
player should simply never take the insurance bet, even
the "even money" variety. Card counters on the
other hand can often detect situations where more than
one-third of the remaining cards are ten-valued, and the
bet is then a profitable one. So, unless you know the
bet is favorable, just ignore it.